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the last week there has been a lot of talk about oversupply, u.s. production levels quite high. but yesterday we saw a precision air strike from israel on a hamas chief-of-staff leader, and what that did was it raised that bar again about the geopolitical risk with crude-oil, and we saw this big reversal to the upside. > > there is yet another call for gold to go to $2,000 an ounce. what do you think about that? > > i definitely think so. the issue that we're having here is safety, and there's not enough of it to be spread around. we're seeing almost no yield in treasuries. we saw a german note auction that provided a negative yield. the dollar index isn't much safer than the euro currency. so gold seems to be a hard asset and a place that traders may want to be. > > good to have you on the show this morning. have a good trading day phillip. > > thank you. president obama has set the pace for tomorrow's meeting with congressional leaders. in a news conference yesterday the president reiterated the need to raise taxes on the wealthy while continuing tax breaks for the middle cla
talk takes us around the world with gary kozlowski. good morning to you. > > good morning. > > let's start with the good old u.s. of a, and cliffs and bluffs. what is the market telling you about the so-called fiscal cliff? will we see a resolution? > > there is some uncertainty that's going on, because what we're seeing, with everybody so concerned, you would think that the u.s. dollar in particular would be pulling back. we are seeing the dollar up in the mid-81 range, and it looks like it is going to continue to run. also, another thing that we are looking at is the indices. they are pulling back down, and i think we still have some more room for them to pull on down. > > what about the eurozone going into yet another recession? what is the fallout? > > wow. we haven't seen the fallout in the euro dollar yet. in yesterday's market, it stayed in the $1.27 range, which really caught a lot of people by surprise, especially with the dollar gaining a little bit. > > tensions are rising in the middle east. will that rattle the oil market? > > we're seeing brent crude is running up, ye
of china america capital joins us now from the trading floor of cme group. good morning, good to have you on the show this morning on this jobs friday. > > good to be here. > > what do you anticipate as far as the numbers? > > looking at the adp report wednesday and yesterday's jobless claims report, expectations are probably on the high side. my expectation, for whatever it's worth, and i really don't think it's worth that much no matter what comes out, but 140,000. as long as we're north of 120,000, 140,000, i think it will be ok. the key is going to be the unemployment rate itself, which eyes will be focused on given the sharp drop it had at last month, and it's expected to uptick one or two basis points to 7.8%, 7.9%. so i think that's going to be real key to watch as well. > > and it turns out that consumers are confident. consumer confidence coming in at a four-year high. what do you make of that? > > i think that consumer confidence really goes with the market itself. granted that we have avoided a summer in which things could have turned very bad, and now i think we're looking at
of traders this morning. phillip streible of rjo futures joins us on this monday morning. good morning to you. > > good morning to you. > > what was going on with that sell-off on friday? was that classic buy-on-the-rumor-of- the-jobs-number and then sell- off-on-the-news? > > it was really interesting. i mean, traders started to jump in and we got some momentum after the number came out. the number was perceived very well, and we saw that push upwards. but as the day progressed, traders became more and more concerned about the election that's going to be tomorrow and what the results will be. so, it felt wise to maybe take some money off the table, stand aside and get back to safety. > > the market hates uncertainty. money though was moving out of gold. what is that telling you? > > that was actually very interesting, because we would have thought that that safety play would have been a push into the metals. but in all reality, it was more of a repatriation back to the dollar, selling some of the risk currencies. it pushed the u.s. dollar index up. we saw gold prices start to trend lower. th
leaders to the white house on friday. chuck coppola joins us in the newsroom with more. the so-called fiscal cliff is right smack in the middle of the agenda in washington, and as our cover story shows you, the president and congressional leaders have already staked out their positions. president obama called on house republicans to give certainty to middle class families by extending middle class tax cuts immediately, before they run out at the end of the year. "i've got the pen ready to sign the bill right away. i'm ready to do it." fairness in taxes proved a key issue during the campaign. extending a tax cut for the middle class now would effectively keep republicans from holding it hostage later in negotiations to extend all tax cuts, including those for the rich. "i'm not going to ask students and seniors and middle-class families to pay down the entire deficit while people like me making over $250,000 aren't asked to pay a dime more in taxes. i'm not going to do that." earlier, house speaker john boehner told reporters that allowing tax cuts for the wealthy to expire at t
, falling to its lowest level since july, mostly due to uncertainty about the future of the u.s. and global economies. groupon shares fell 13% after the close on earnings news. revenues were up, but the coupon company had a net lost of nearly 3 million dollars. profits were up at disney thanks to espn and growth at theme parks. and priceline is set to buy online travel company kayak for $40 per share. how low will this market go? ben lichtenstein of tradersaudio.com joins us. good morning to you. happy friday. but is this a buying opportunity here? > > i don't think so. i think basically if you try and step up right now, you're kind of trying to play "catch the knife" if you will. there has been a lot of energy to the downside. it started wednesday. we saw a continuation of that yesterday. basically closed 'em out on the lows. everything across the board literally looks weak right now. the one thing that's been just kind of crazy and doesn't really fit in with all of this is that the dollar has been sideways, right around 81 even, and that the volatility index is still holding right around
everybody, i'm angela miles, and thank you for joining us on today's first business. coming up in this edition, we are getting into the spirit of giving by checking in on charities. how americans are opening up their wallets, and why some nonprofits are facing a new dilemma. plus, we'll take a look at the advances parents are making to help their children become financially savvy. college costs continue to soar. our guest is dishing out tips on cutting the expense. why he says you don't have to be at the top of your class to find a top scholarship. and, let the holiday movie season commence. a review of some of the biggest and smallest flicks to hit the big screen in the coming months. nonprofit organizations are facing a big dilemna: many of their donors are elderly, in poor health and there are fewer of them each year, and there aren't enough new donors to pick up the slack. in our cover story, how one non-profit is using business strategies to make a difference. the privately-funded pritzker military library is one of chicago's best-kept secrets. "our biggest problem is no o
market. and, what is the deal? traders tell us what they expect from the fiscal fallout on capital hill. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's tuesday, november 27th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: tech is in check. the dow and s&p 500 pulled back a touch yesterday, while the nasdaq pulled out a 6th straight win. apple and facebook were among the hot tech stocks. gold and oil both slipped on concerns about whether greece will get another bailout, and the u.s. budget. the governor of new york places the cost of hurricane sandy at $42 billion in damages and losses. and all bets are off at intrade.com. the website can no longer allow u.s. residents to place financial bets on the prediction markets. intrade correctly predicted president obama would be re-elected and that the u.s. is not likely to fall off the fiscal cliff. there are lots of rumblings coming out of washington. let's turn to scott bauer of trading advantage to talk about this alleged fiscal cliff. what do you think - and
to make a plan to use your medicines safely. for more information on diabetes medicines go to f-d-a dot gov slash womens diabetes. people are out of work after hostess closed the doors. what's ahead for twinkies? cyber splurge. the record money consumers will be spending shopping on the internet this year. plus, trendy turkeys. the startling cost of an organic bird for a thanksgiving feast. and no more rip offs. what you need to know before taking your car to the mechanic. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's monday, november 19th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: a better tone out of washington is giving a lift to the stock market. the market made gains on friday, but it wasn't enough to wipe away losses for this week. in market action last week, the dow fell 1.8%, the s&p was down 1.5%, and the nasdaq edged lower by 1.8%. president obama is still traveling in asia today, where he is calling for continued political reforms. american pilots will vote again on a contract offer from th
good morning everybody! i'm angela miles. thank you for joining us for this morning's edition of first business. just ahead, stocks traders want to buy now. we'll take a look at a scam that aims to steal your frequent flier miles. how to prevent scammers from getting into your account. plus, many members of the military find themselves in debt. we'll hear from a young woman who helps shell out advice to our heros. and, you might know him as a blues brother, but find out how dan akroyd is upping his net worth with a little help from the liquor business. before we get to all that, let's check in with matt shapiro, president of mws capital. good morning matt. what is your trading strategy in the third quarter? > > look at it, we've had a year where we're going to be looking, honestly, for me, to consolidate gains as this market, i think, is going to do better than people think going into the election. what happened these past two or three summers? we've had a meltdown, and what happened to the market angie? > > the market came back. > > it did, didn't it? so, we're at sort of a p
on sale friday. larry shover of sfg alternatives joins us now for a closer look at today's trading market. good to have you on the show larry. always good to see your smile. a lot of reports were surfacing yesterday that harry reid actually moved the market because he said that talks had stalled out over the fiscal cliff. do you buy into that? > > perhaps. right now, the market seems to be shrugging its shoulders at every headline that comes in, because we are hearing so much. but what harry reid said was really a game- changer, about perhaps trying to curb filibusters. that would be a game-changer, and would put a lid on the stock market. > he could have that much power? unbelievable. all right, let's move on to our next question and talk about greece. for now it looks like greece will not go bankrupt. is that helping the stock market? > > i think it is, but i think it was priced into the stock market. i think the stock market realizes that greece's debt is unsustainable, so anything they can do to prolong that pain until the inevitable happens where there's debt forgiveness is a good th
of option pit mentoring gives us our first look at the trading day, and what do you anticipate on this post-election day mark? > > well, president obama won, so let's look at what his policies are really going to do. i think he's a weak dollar president. so what does that mean? gold is going to rally, commodities are going to rally. i think you will still have people searching for yield, so the stock market is going to rally. we will see a big sell- off in the vix, and we should see a sell-off in the u.s. dollar as well. > > what do you think about gold and oil here? yesterday they both ramped up. > > we saw both buying ahead of an obama victory. there is a strong belief that gold could make an end-of-year run through its all-time highs toward that $2,000 level. oil is a little more demand-centric, so expect it to test $90, maybe $95 in wti, but i doubt it's going to be testing new highs toward the end of the year. > > as you know, consumer confidence is up. we have retailers reporting earnings this week. is this a time to buy retail stocks? > > i think you have to be smart about which
holiday shopping on thanksgiving. target is joining wal-mart, toys 'r' us and sears by kicking off black friday shopping on thanksgiving night at 9. retailers usually bank a third of their annual sales during the holiday season and the stakes are high to beat competitors and entice customers into stores. these retailers all claim a demand from consumers as the reason for the early openings. a former williams sonoma executive is now trying to cook up innovation for best buy. hoping to restore some of its luster, best buy has lured sharon mccollam out of retirement to become its new chief administrative officer. looking to boost both sales and its online presence, mccollam will have her work cut out for her. despite controlling 16% of u.s. consumer electronics sales, the chain has seen shares fall 35% so far this year and posted a $1.2 billion net loss in its latest fiscal year. a busy week is ahead in washington as democrats and republicans face that looming fiscal cliff. today at the white house, president obama meets with the leaders of labor and progressive groups. wednesday he's invit
temperatures continue to rise. violence is ratching up in the middle east. john brady of rj o'brien joins us now for a look at the trading day from cme group. good to have you on the show this morning. > > thank you much. > > oil prices were higher yesterday by almost 3% during the session at one point. is the middle east the main driver behind the move? > > i don't think so actually. i think the the strength in crude was mirrored by strength in other commodities as well, and specifically risk assets had a super day on monday with the idea that over the course of the weekend, treasury secretary geithner, president obama and other high-ranking administration and congressional officials seemed to hint to the media that a fiscal cliff deal would happen before the middle of or end of december, and thus risk assets took that as meaning that, really in the background, fiscal cliff negotiations are speeding up and are intensifying, and that we will have a solution. so monday's trade was really about a fiscal cliff solution. the dollar was lower, commodity prices were higher, and equities of course
in the past week. mark sebastian of option pit mentoring and consulting joins us now to talk cliffs and bluffs. good morning to you. > > good morning. > still no chance we are going off that cliff according to traders? > > i guess not. it is interesting what will happen when politicians are short on detail, long on optimism. we could really get a nice rally. we took a nice technical bounce off the 200-day moving average around 1385. i don't think we see any real resistance 'til 1425, unless a politician opens their mouth and sends us tumbling right back to 1385, which can happen at any moment. it is really what is driving the s&p 500 right now. > meanwhile bonds are bouncing, and gold sold off heavily yesterday. > > yeah, terrible. there are rumors that the fed is going to announce a further qe, which is always going to make bonds rally. in gold there was a huge customer that had a sell-on- open order yesterday and sent gold tumbling off its 50-day moving average. however, gold really kind of held up without hitting any real technical level. i think this is an excellent opportunity you could w
part of the gold trade, too, is perhaps on a stronger u.s. dollar, and that of course could be a vote on perhaps a romney victory later on tonight. > > good to have you on the show today. that's john brady of rj o'brien. in battleground states such as ohio, hundreds of lawyers have shown up to monitor polls on election day. in our cover story, it's one of many pre- emptive steps being taken to avert a recount that, in ohio's case, could take weeks and delay the election's outcome. while former governor romney and president obama criss- crossed the country in last- minute campaign efforts, more than 200 lawyers from the non- partisan "election protection" group spread out across states such as ohio to make sure potential voters were not discriminated against or intimidated. legal challenges that could delay the outcome for weeks are the last things investors say they want. "the worst thing for business is uncertainty, and that's what's affecting the market now." already there have been two dozen lawsuits within the past six months challening photo i.d. requirments and limited poll hour
hyped to a mostly forgotten $4 stock. paul eggers takes us behind the scenes as former groupon employees vent over the rise and fall of company stock. groupon's stock chart is not a pretty picture. from its opening on the nasdaq in november of last year to today, the stock has dropped more than 80%. during that time, while traders quickly sold off their shares, former employees of groupon like jason bowman were barred from trading their options on the open market until june. "at one point during the lockout, it was about $30, and people were saying, 'boy, this could be something.' and then it went down to $7 and people said, 'boy, what happened to all that money?'" groupon alum dan knispel also was forced to sit on the sidelines as the value of his shares plummeted "i'd say it was rough, from time to time, especially as the number got smaller and smaller." like many early groupon employees, both bowman and knispel took a little less in upfront salary to get equity options in the firm, a decision which looked good when google nearly bought groupon for a reported $6 billion figure in 2010.
mulholland of china-america capital joins us now. good morning to you tim. it is the final trading day of the month. what do you anticipate? > > i think more of the same we've been seeing. the market seems to think it has a lot of resilience. we bounced earlier this week off of the 200-day moving average. s&p down around 1382-3 level. we are now near the post-election highs, which, end-of-month buying, typically book-squaring and so forth, typically leads to higher prices, so i would probably expect that, albeit interrupted by headlines regarding the fiscal cliff. > what is your reaction to a lawmaker who wants to put an extra tax on high-speed trading? what do you think about that? > > i think it is short- sightedness. i don't mean that as any real criticism, but when you look at it, they really want to arrest the problem. it should really be on cancellations. the speed of trading isn't- in my opinion, isn't really the issue. speed should be competitive and whatnot. as long as everyone has the same fair advantage to that, i think that's what the key is. putting a tax on a broad level,
of average joe options joins us. todd, i have to tell you, it was good to see those traders back on the trading floor. what was your impression of that trade? > > good morning. it was nice to be back. it was nice to be back in action. however, the trade was very slow and very dull, and we're still trying to figure out, we're trying to make sure that all the systems were working properly, and there is a lot of news coming out today and tomorrow with the adp jobs today and the regular jobs report tomorrow. so, it figured to be a little slow yesterday anyway. > > we had a surprise with that adp number. what do you anticipate for the jobs number, and how are you positioning? > > i am positioning neutral. i think the market itself needs a bit of a solve, we need a little bit of a correction. i think that the market itself, the number has been kind of out of whack the last couple of months. it's really hard to get a real handle on what's happening. i think the street expects the number to be pretty good, because the market has held up fairly well at the upper levels of this latest trad
alternatives joins us now. those reports larry of cease-fire coming out of israel really rocked the oil market yesterday. what do you anticipate for today? > > i anticipate the trend to continue. keep in mind, before we had this cease-fire, a month ago, there was a big downward trend in the oil price. so i just expect that momentum to continue. refinery margins are really high, there is a lot of supply. i expect oil to continue to lower in price. > > what about greece? will we be able to get any closure there with the bailout money? > > i think the only way we are going to get closure is when people are willing to forgive and write down their debt, because that is the only way it's going to work. right now they are 180% debt-to-gdp. they need to get it down to 120%. it's just not going to happen. they don't have the money to be able to do this. they are going to have to forgive debt and take a haircut. > > month after month, traders are watching better-than- expected news come in from the housing sector. can we call the housing crisis done? > > i think we can. i think we have fallen down a sev
. wall street appears to be using caution while lawmakers in washington prepare to face off over the fiscal cliff. zynga's cfo is exiting the social gaming company for a senior level position at facebook. zynga is shaking up the management ranks and is backing its 2012 outlook. petitions to save thanksgiving from black friday shopping are popping up on the internet. employees and their families are among the first to sign on. and aaa predicts the number of americans hitting the road to head home for the holidays will rise slightly this season to 43.6 million. todd horwitz of the adam mesh trading group joins us. how are trading volumes going with so much talk about this fiscal cliff? and are traders finally tired of those two words? > > good morning, and yeah, we are tired of those words. look: the bottom line is this: the market is actually telling you - although the market was down yesterday - it rallied and then broke down - the market itself is telling you that the fiscal cliff is really not that big of an issue here, because we are still up 100% from '09 lows, and we're stil
the prices and get the best deal. >> you can use a price comparison app to look for retailers that have the best prices and then there is also an ann, when you walk into the mall, you'll see deals in the mall. >> people tend to use their tablets in the later even hours. at night and reading and people are engaging in a lot of shopping. >> the catch is that everything you buy online has a trail, often to marketing companies that estimate the value of the information averages $1,200 per person. >> they are going to track you across multiple sights. what you clicked on, what you searched. >> and it is still far behind black friday which acould wants for more than $11 billion in sales but it is slipping. >> most of the media attention after thanksgiving has been foe does doesed on black friday and cyber morbid. but as people gear top give, this giving tuesday, charities are hope tag people will also be motivated to kansas a great need out there right now. the recession has been particularly hard on chartable organizations. >>> more than 5,100 volunteers from all 50 states spent their than
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